The Florida Governor’s Race: DeSantis versus Gillum

Less than 50 days and Floridians have the chance to paint Tallahassee blue or stay the course with a Republican governor. Pollsters are giving Gillum an edge over DeSantis by 3.4%, but Florida knows what happens when we rely on polling as a litmus test for election results. The match up between DeSantis and Gillum is a shadow race of Bernie Sanders versus Donald Trump and will serve as the case study for 2020 cycle as Democrats seek a viable contender against incumbent GOP President Donald Trump.

During the primary Bernie Sanders stumped for Gillum giving him the momentum he needed to hand a loss to establishment candidate Gwen Graham. Meanwhile, across the aisle, Florida favorite and hometown candidate Adam Putnam lost big against Trump endorsed, Ron DeSantis. This competitive match up is providing an exciting cycle for everyone involved, and this cycle will go down as the anti-establishment election.

This cycle is forcing both parties into uncharted territory as they get their bearings with a new kind of candidate. What would have been described as fringe candidate a decade ago is now mainstream. The momentum each party is feeling as a result of unconventional candidacy, and after November both parties will have to decide if this formula will play well on a national level.

Ron DeSantis, who is running for governor on the Republican side had up until recently served in Congress and on the House Freedom Caucus has run a Trump supported campaign while leveraging his military background and deeply conservative stances on abortion, gun rights, and illegal immigration. Across the aisle, Mayor of Tallahassee Andrew Gillum, a Democrat, is embracing his working-class roots and stumping on the promise to invest heavily in the state’s public schools and fight for stricter gun regulations and Medicare-for-all.

Win, lose, or recount, the outcome on Election Day will serve not only as a referendum on the president, but also as a litmus test for a progressive agenda and if it has the momentum needed for Democrats to bring it into 2020. On the surface, both candidates are vying for the Governor’s mansion, but for their respective parties, there is a lot more at stake. Both the GOP and Democratic parties are pouring money and resources into the Sunshine State and show no signs of stopping before November 6th.

One thing both parties will need to keep in mind is, midterm elections turn out more conservative and less racially diverse voter groups than a presidential election. For Republicans this could work in their favor if DeSantis were running against Gwen Graham, but with Andrew Gillum as his opponent, conventional voter turnout could find itself turned on its head as Florida voters have a chance to make history by electing the Sunshine State’s first African American governor.

Looking back to 2008, Obama was able to turn Florida blue because of who he was as a candidate. Now the question is, will Gillum will be able to bring it home in a similar way? Alternately, Gillum like DeSantis could face problems appealing to their party’s moderate members and independents looking for a voice in the Governor’s race.

If anything was learned ahead of the Florida primaries, polling is not a reliable gauge on who will win on Election Day. In other words, the race for Governor is heating up and is anyone’s election to lose.