What’s next for the Iran Sanctions Act
After a frenetic election cycle, Congress reconvenes this week and on the docket is a ten-year extension of the Iran Sanctions Act (“ISA”) and is set to expire on December 31st. Currently, the ISA allows trade, energy, defense and banking industry sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile tests
The ISA has been the most divisive foreign policy issue for Congress. While Democrats champion the ISA as Obama’s flagship diplomatic achievement, Republicans contend the deal is a reckless mistake, which will only empower Iran and make it a bigger threat in the Middle East, particularly to Israel. As both sides of the aisle hold differing opinions of ISA, neither side has reached a conclusion on how best to handle the impending renewal in terms of energy and restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities.
As the option of a “clean” renewal — unchanged legislation — is sure to pass the House, its fate in the Senate could hang in the balance. Since the passage of ISA, Republicans have been outspoken of wanting stricter sanctions against Iran and have tried on various occasions to pass legislation.
It is apparent that ISA did little to improve Iran’s international behavior. Instead, Iran’s behavior in the Middle East has worsened. Since the inception of the Iran deal last July, Iran has tested illegal ballistic missiles, attempted to procure technologies and components with nuclear applications, and, according to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has amassed more than 130 metric tons of heavy water, a material used in the production of weapons-grade plutonium, breaching a limit set by the deal.
Now with the clock ticking on ISA’s expiration, there is a chance to make changes and impose stricter sanctions on a country that has already proven its inability to play nice on the world stage. This year alone, Iran has captured ten U.S. sailors and fired anti-ship missiles at American and UAE ships, as well as increasing their support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. As such, Congress has the chance to send a resounding message to Iran that America is not willing to overlook their continued violations of the ISA.
As a party to the multilateral agreement, Iran had a responsibility to uphold its end of the deal, but it has shown flagrant disregard for the ISA at every turn. Considered a lame-duck Congress, this is an opportunity for the House and the Senate to come together and force Iran to pay the price for not abiding by the agreed-upon nuclear deal.
However, like most deals in Washington, renewing or revamping the ISA is not without its complexities. Renewing the ISA has the potential to be seen by Iran as the U.S. violating the nuclear pact, since the ten-year extension would extend beyond the date when the United Nations would formally lift sanctions in 2023. On the other hand, imposing stronger sanctions on Iran with the editing of ISA may only further fuel Iran’s desire to start up their nuclear reactors again.
It is safe to say Congress has their work cut out for them in terms of reaching an agreement on ISA’s quickly-approaching deadline of December 31st and deciding how to handle such an irrational actor as Iran. Even if both the House and the Senate pass an agreed-upon renewal of the ISA, it still must be signed off by Obama, and, according to my Magic 8 Ball, the outlook is not so good.
Written for and published on Political Storm.