The Florida Primary: A Quick Take

Today is the day Floridians have been waiting for, the Primary Election! The backdrop of the Florida primary is less than ideal. Currently, the world is suffering through a global pandemic, and people everywhere are practicing social distancing. Nevertheless, despite other states postponing their primaries, Florida polls are open.

Biden is projected to win by 30+ points over Bernie Sanders in the Sunshine State. The number of delegates up for grabs in Florida is 219. As of March 17th, Biden is leading in the delegate count with 871 while Sanders trails with 719 delegates. The magic number to become the Democratic nominee for president is 1,991 delegates.

According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, Biden is set to win with 69% of the vote while Sanders will come in a distance second with 27%. This would give Biden 76 pledged delegates. The remaining 143 delegates are apportioned based on how candidates perform in each of Florida’s 27 congressional districts. This could be affected if voter turnout is lower due to people self-quarantining concerns of spreading or contracting COVID-19.

In terms of voter demographics, Biden has had a strong showing among African American voters as well as white, rural voters. Out of Florida’s 27 congressional districts, Biden is projected to have over 50% showing in a majority of the districts with at least 70% in three districts. The first of the three districts is the 5th Congressional District which spans across Northern Florida from Jacksonville to Tallahassee. The second and third districts are the 20th and 24th which run from parts of Palm Beach down to Miami. For Sanders, Florida voters are not quite feeling the Bern. In previous states, Sanders has done better than Biden with hispanic voters, but in Florida Sanders may see a decline in hispanic support.

Last month, Sanders came under fire “from representatives of South Florida after praising literacy programs in communist Cuba.” As a self-describe democratic socialist coupled with his refusal to condemn former Cuban President Fidel Castro, Sanders is going to struggle with hispanic voters in Florida. A majority of Florida’s hispanic voters are Cuban American, and like most Cuban Americans, they tend to be anti-socialism due to Cuba’s Socialist past.

Barring any misstep Joe Biden is poised to have a good night in the Sunshine State. Tuesday night’s victory for Biden will force Sanders to ask himself, “do I still have a path to the nomination?”