Democrats in Crisis
There is a crisis in Florida and the Florida Democrats are at the epicenter of it. From fumbling on messaging/party identity to losing Congressional seats in 2020, the Florida Democrats are now staring down the barrel of a bleak future with voters in the Sunshine State.
For years, Florida Democrats have enjoyed a sizable advantage in their voter registration rate over Republicans. Nevertheless, the Democrats have experienced various setbacks in their continued push to register voters across the state. As a result, the Republican party is gaining ground and, if they keep the momentum going, by 2022 the Florida GOP will surpass Democrats for the number of registered voters.
When former President Barack Obama won Florida in 2008, there were 700,000 more Democrats than Republicans registered in Florida. Thirteen years later, and the Republicans have almost erased the voter registration advantage. As of August 2021, the GOP is closing in on voter registration, trailing Democrats by 23,055.
The dwindling lead in voter registration for Democrats should serve as an ominous warning for the party. Not only will the loss of the lead in voter registration numbers be the end of an era for Democrats who have previously held a sizable lead over Republicans, but it does not bode well for the future of the Democratic party in upcoming elections.
Republicans’ focus on voter registration, in congruence with their full-frontal assault on voting rights, is positioning the GOP to win big in 2022, 2024, and beyond. Republican voters are notorious super voters and never miss a chance to make their voice heard on election day. Should Republicans win the voter registration game, the Democrats will have difficulty winning another election in Florida going forward.
Voter registration numbers are just another problem plaguing the Florida Democrats. From their sluggish fundraising numbers to the ongoing struggle to recruit candidates, the Florida Dems have significant ground to make up if they want a chance at the ballot box.
While the erosion of Democratic votes in the Sunshine State is setting off warning bells for party members and elected officials alike, the GOP’s voter registration success should alarm the American electorate as a whole.
The increased number of voters registered by the GOP is quietly painting a picture of Trumpism acceptance and far-right policies. Florida primaries are closed and candidates win primary elections by pandering to the base. In this case, it’s the far-right of the base because they will show up and vote.
Should the Republican party in Florida have more Republican voters than Democrats, they will have a better turnout during the primary election and in the general election. At first glance, the aforementioned information doesn’t seem alarming. But, if more people are registering as Republican, it means more people are identifying, justifying, and agreeing with the far-right Republican rhetoric and policies. In other words, it seems the silent majority is silently registering Republican and emboldening the GOP to continue to double down on Trumpism.
While a majority of Americans outright rejected Trumpism and sent 45 packing, Florida voters overwhelmingly (51.2% of voters) supported Trump’s reelection. Conversely, Biden lost Florida by less than 4%. Florida is the third largest state in the Union and should the Democrats lose their voter registration edge to the GOP, the margin of loss will become wider, tipping Florida from a purple state to firebrand red, encouraging Republicans everywhere to campaign on Trumpism and pander to the far-right. Gone will be the days of a moderate Republican in office or the ability to vote for unifying moderate candidates.
If Americans thought the Trump presidency was only a wrinkle in the fabric of American democracy, they have not seen anything yet. Should Republicans solidify the Sunshine State as a strong GOP hold, the wrinkle of Trumpism will become a crease on our politics.
As warning bells sound, the Democrats are working to push back on the doomsday alarmist view presented by analysts. Pointing to their 2021–22 goals of voter registration drives, the hotly contested gubernatorial primary between Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried and former Florida Governor, current Congressman Charlie Crist, are great talking points, but what matters the most is money in the bank and voters at the polls.
November 2022 is thirteen months away and there is no doubt the Democrats have their work cut out for them. After all, the next election will determine if Florida will remain a battleground state or if the Republicans will keep Florida red. At this time, it would be prudent for the Democrats to focus on who before do and get back to basics. Register voters. Recruit viable candidates. Raise money. Turnout the vote.
If the GOP can nail down the drumbeat on winning elections, there is no reason Florida Democrats can’t do the same. It’s not rocket science, it’s just strategy. Because the alternative is a slippery slope of Trumpism widely accepted in Florida and beyond. The next election is the Democrats’ to lose, but only if they don’t show up and vote.