The Price of Leaving Afghanistan

In 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan and embarked on what would become America’s longest military conflict. Since the inception of the Afghanistan war, America has spent $2.26 trillion on war efforts.

Twenty years and four presidents later, Joe Biden announced in April the withdrawal of all American troops from Afghanistan, marking an end to the 20 year war. The withdrawal of troops doesn’t signify the end of the war completely, but marks the end of America’s involvement.

At home, there is no longer an appetite for the war in Afghanistan. In a recent poll, 58% of Americans agree with Biden’s decision to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan. However, this so-called victory may be short-lived.

During the two decades-long conflict, America made small gains in health, education, and women’s rights but failed to build a stable democratic Afghanistan. Life expectancy rose from 56 to 64 years, literacy rate increased 35%, and access to clean water rose 73%.

The longevity of these gains hangs in the balance as uncertainty looms for Afghanistan. While America has spent trillions of dollars to sustain a 20-year war, the cost of withdrawal may be worse.

At first blush, critics cite a vacuum created for nefarious actors to fill the void left by American troops. America’s departure could lead the Taliban to believe they have defeated America, which would embolden them to work to undermine and overthrow the Afghanistan government. As a result, military planners and intelligence analysts collectively believe the Afghanistan government could fall in as few as six months.

Aside from the destabilization of the Afghanistan government, there is potential for increased civilian casualties. According to the United Nations, civilian casualties rose 29% in the first three months of 2021 compared to last year. Without an American presence, intelligence reports point to the continuation of suicide bombers and increased human suffering.

Currently, the Taliban controls 188 of the country’s 407 districts and contests another 135, leading military advisors to warn of the Taliban seizing control of Afghanistan. Should the Taliban seize control of the country, it would set women’s rights back by decades.

Since 2001, child marriage has declined by 17%, and the number of girls enrolled in primary schools has doubled. The strides made for women in Afghanistan have been substantial for the country, with more women going to college and serving in Parliament. The rights granted and opportunities created for women and girls in Afghanistan as a result of America’s stabilizing presence have been unprecedented.

There is no question America’s involvement in Afghanistan has cost taxpayers dearly. A 2020 report issued by the Department of Defense stated war-fighting costs over the years totaled $815.7 billion. For the people of Afghanistan, a disaster looms once the American troop withdrawal is complete. The risk of Afghanistan descending into a full-blown civil war is real, while Biden’s desire may be to fulfill the campaign promise of ending the forever wars. The question that needs to be asked is at what cost?

While Americans have paid in lives lost, tax dollars spent, and time served, the people of Afghanistan’s future hangs in the balance. Removing troops may seem like the right decision today, but if Biden doesn’t protect our allies and the societal gains made in Afghanistan, America may be recalled. There are significant unknowns with the future of Afghanistan, and Biden should heed the warnings issued by military personnel and the intelligence community before it’s too late.