Nikki Fried vs. Charlie Crist: The Battle to Become Florida’s Democratic Nominee for Governor

On Tuesday, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried launched her gubernatorial campaign. In recent months, Fried has made waves in taking DeSantis to task over his handling of the pandemic and his record as governor. While Commissioner Fried has polled in a dead heat in a matchup against Governor DeSantis, she is not the only Democrat looking to unseat DeSantis. Former Florida Governor Charlie Crist is also running as a Democrat for governor. 

The primary race between Fried and Crist is sure to be an interesting race. Fried, who narrowly won her election as Commissioner of Agriculture, is the only statewide elected Democrat and has spent the past few months attacking DeSantis. 

Earlier in May, Charlie Crist announced he was running for governor and has wasted no time hitting the campaign trail. Crist currently serves in the House of Representatives and previously served as Florida’s governor from 2007 to 2011. Since leaving the governor’s mansion, Crist has tried to find his way back. In 2014, Crist ran against then-incumbent governor Rick Scott and lost by a thin margin. 

At first glance, Crist seems like the favorite in the Democratic primary for governor. From his fundraising capabilities to his statewide name recognition to the fact he has previously served as Florida governor gives him an edge in the Democratic primary. However, as Florida learned in 2018, when Democratic favorite and daughter of former Florida Governor Bob Graham, Gwen Graham lost to lesser known Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum. 

The 2018 Gwen Graham upset should serve as a warning for those who believe Charlie Crist has the nomination locked down. Fried should focus on reintroducing herself to Florida voters, and share how her experience in Tallahassee has prepared her for the governor’s mansion. Immediately following her intention to run for governor, Fried has wasted no time in keeping the pressure on DeSantis and it’s clear her campaign strategy is focused on the general election. In other elections, a general election strategy would be sound, but running against a former Florida Governor such as Charlie Crist, this strategy could backfire. 

Crist is a gifted politician and fantastic at fundraising (#Fangate 2014, anyone?), but he’s been out of the governor’s mansion for over a decade, and will need to reintroduce himself to Floridians and prove even though he’s been in Washington he’s still in touch with the issues Floridians care about most. Currently, the Crist campaign is working to position himself as Biden-esque and someone who can unite the Democratic Party and has crossover electability among independents and moderate Republicans. The need for a Democratic candidate who has appeals to a broad constituency, but it is not a slam dunk. 

In the past two gubernatorial elections, the Democrats have nominated two very different types of candidates. In 2014, they chose Crist as the moderate choice to square off against Republican incumbent Rick Scott, but Crist would lose by 1 percentage point. In 2018, the Democrats chose a progressive candidate with Andrew Gillum and lost the governor’s mansion by four-tenths of a percentage point to now Governor Ron DeSantis. 

If history is any indicator, the Democratic governor’s race will remain a toss-up until the primary election next August. The Florida Democrats would best be served to get behind a strong candidate who can force DeSantis to spend money and go on the defense. In order to achieve this, whoever the Democrats choose should have a handle on messaging, strong name recognition, and a deep war chest.

Winning the Governor’s mansion in Florida for the Democrats will be an uphill battle in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1994. Nevertheless, the primary election between Fried and Crist will be anything but boring.